There is a risk that depending on the power and the position of the cell towers in the 5G network, it could bleed over into our spectrum and that’s the risk. And the assessments that NASA has done in conjunction with NOAA have determined that there is a very high probability that we are going to lose a lot of data.
5G signal could jam satellites that help with weather forecasting New mobile system to be launched this year ‘will put lives at risk’ Forecasters may no longer be able to warn of storms such as. High-band 5G enables the superfast download speeds that 5G is widely known for, but infrastructure requirements to build it mean it’s only available in the urban core of big cities.
The 2019 hurricane season officially starts tomorrow. Government forecasters predict nine to 15 named storms. Two to four could become major hurricanes. That's a category three or higher.
But the ability to predict those monster storms may be threatened by the next generation of cell phones. On one side of the debate, scientists worry that future 5G networks will hurt satellite data they rely on. On the other side, federal regulators and cell phone companies are racing to deploy 5G technology, which will deliver information up to 100 times faster than today's mobile networks.
'This is a huge concern because we fear that advances in weather forecasting are at risk,' Marshall Shepherd, Director of the University of Georgia's Atmospheric Sciences Program, said.
Meteorologists are concerned because some of the frequencies the Federal Communications Commission plans to use for 5G are located next to the only frequency where weather satellites can detect water vapor, a critical component for accurate forecasting. They worry the new 5G transmission will interfere with their weather data collection, making it less accurate.
'The data is essential,' Shepherd said. '90% of data going into forecast models these days comes from weather satellites. If you remove a good portion of that satellite data, you're crippling our ability to make accurate weather forecasts.'
That could mean less time to prepare for major storms.
'If 5G were in place during Hurricane Sandy, and we had the interference that many of us expect, we might not have seen nine days out that the storm was going to make a left,' Shepherd said. 'We might have only known three days out that the storm was going to make a hard left into New York and New Jersey.'
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The FCC declined an on-camera interview, but a group representing the wireless industry calls the meteorologists' concerns an 'absurd claim with no science.' They say the weather sensor currently deployed is 'much less susceptible to interference' than meteorologists claim.
Shepherd said he wants to take more time to look into the issue.
'I'm certainly in support of 5G and advanced telecommunications,' Shepherd said. 'But let's have a conversation to make sure we're not setting weather forecasts back several decades.'
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There is still time for a compromise before networks roll out 5G later this year.
'We don't want to move backward, we want to move forward with our weather prediction capabilities because lives, property and even our national security depend on it,' Shepherd said.
NOAA says accurate weather data will provide the U.S. economy with $13 billion, but the wireless industry says 5G will add $274 billion.
Meteorologists say losing some of this critical information could take us back to the 1980s in terms of forecasting.
A US Navy memo warns that 5G mobile networks are likely to interfere with weather satellites, and senators are urging the Federal Communications Commission to avoid issuing new spectrum licenses to wireless carriers until changes are made to prevent harms to weather forecasting.
The FCC has already begun an auction of 24GHz spectrum that would be used in 5G networks. But Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) today wrote a letter to FCC Chairman Ajit Pai, asking him to avoid issuing licenses to winning bidders 'until the FCC approves the passive band protection limits that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) determine are necessary to protect critical satellite‐based measurements of atmospheric water vapor needed to forecast the weather.'
Wyden and Cantwell said that the 'ongoing sale of wireless airwaves could damage the effectiveness of US weather satellites and harm forecasts and predictions relied on to protect safety, property, and national security.' They chided the FCC for beginning the auction 'over the objections of NASA, NOAA, and members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). These entities all argued that out-of-band emissions from future commercial broadband transmissions in the 24GHz band would disrupt the ability to collect water-vapor data measured in a neighboring frequency band (23.6 to 24GHZ) that meteorologists rely on to forecast the weather.'
The internal Navy memo on the topic, written on March 27 by Capt. Marc Eckardt, a Naval oceanographer, was made public by Wyden and Cantwell today.
The memo topic is 'Operational impacts from potential loss of NOAA/NASA METOC [meteorology and oceanography] satellite data resulting from the FCC spectrum auction for 5G.' The Navy memo summarizes the problem as follows:
- Remotely sensed observations (water vapor) may be degraded or lost due to growing interference from the broader adoption of 5G; specifically, in the 24GHz bands.
- Naval operations will continue but with a probable degradation of weather and ocean models, resulting in increased risk in Safety of Flight and Safety of Navigation, and degraded Battlespace Awareness for tactical / operational advantage.
“Partial-to-complete loss” of measurements
The Navy memo cited NOAA and NASA studies on interference from 24GHz spectrum, which is intended for mobile use and is adjacent to spectrum used for weather operations.
Advertisement '[A]s such, it is expected that interference will result in a partial-to-complete loss of remotely sensed water-vapor measurements,' the Navy memo said. 'It is also expected that impacts will be concentrated in urban areas of the United States first.'
The problem could affect Navy and Marine Corps forecasts of tropical cyclones as well as rain, ice, and snow, the memo said. The Navy memo recommends asking the FCC to 'tighten out-of-band interference by reducing bleed-over limits to -57dB.' The memo also says the Navy should 'work with NOAA and NASA to continually assess and quantify actual impacts' and develop mitigations including 'limited use of other channels, substitution of lesser-fidelity parameters, and the development of new techniques and algorithms through new research and development.'
The Navy's concerns are shared by meteorologists quoted in a recent Nature article.
As Wyden and Cantwell told Pai, 'Numerous scientists in the US and elsewhere, and several US federal agencies, have warned that allowing communications in the 24GHz band at the interference levels permitted by the FCC would substantially impact the accuracy of weather forecasts crucial to the Department of Defense (DOD), public safety officials, the commercial fishing industry, farmers, and millions of Americans who depend on accurate forecasts of floods, hurricanes, winter storms, and tornadoes.'
Questions for Pai
Wyden and Cantwell asked Pai several questions, requesting answers by June 11. First, the senators asked Pai to provide evidence that 24GHz broadband transmissions 'will not impact applications in adjacent frequency bands, particularly satellite measurements of water vapor in the 23.8 GHz band that is so important to weather forecasting.' The FCC should provide 'computer models, assumptions, and analysis' it used in making its decision, the senators wrote.
How 5g Is Likely To Put Weather Forecasting At Risk Decreases
Wyden and Cantwell also asked Pai what the FCC will do if the International Telecommunication Union 'refuses to accept' the FCC's emissions limits in the 24GHz band.
The senators also want Pai to provide a detailed explanation of the process it used 'to resolve the dispute between NASA/NOAA and the FCC in favor of the FCC's position.'
The senators' last request to Pai is as follows:
How 5g Is Likely To Put Weather Forecasting At Risk Ratio
Explain and provide supporting documentation related to the FCC's public interest analysis, including any cost-benefit analysis, on the FCC's emissions limit. In particular, explain how the FCC addressed the costs to taxpayers from the loss of billions of dollars of investment in weather-sensing satellites, the costs to public safety and national security, and to the nation's commercial activities that rely on this critical weather data.
How 5G Is Likely To Put Weather Forecasting At Risk
We contacted Pai's office about the Navy memo and the Wyden/Cantwell letter today, and we will update this story if we get a response.